研究 澳博官方网站app研究所2018年经济研究首届会议

澳博官方网站app研究所(澳博官方网站app研究所)研究的最大主题之一是 现金流和支出波动这建立在我们独特的家庭收入和支出观点之上。” 澳博官方网站app研究所总裁兼首席执行官戴安娜•法雷尔指出. 在美国，收入和支出波动普遍存在.S. 家庭.¹ Even predictable cash flow fluctuations matter in real ways, be it an inflow from a tax refund ²,³ 或者失业救济金到期导致收入下降.⁴ This underscores the importance of having a working capital buffer to protect against typical, 可观察到的变化.

_{法雷尔
澳博官方网站app研究所}

_{Dr. Jonathan Morduch
纽约大学}

有证据表明，家庭确实会对刺激储蓄的政策做出反应, such as India’s policy change to increase income tax exemption limits on mortgage principal and interest.⁵ 虽然这项研究提供了证据，证明正确的激励措施可以刺激家庭储蓄, continued analysis of the interconnectedness of volatility with income inequality and race is critical. “There is a difference between wealthier 家庭 in terms of the resources available to deal with volatility but also exposure to volatility. The same 家庭 that have less protection and lack the ability to deal with big shocks are the ones that face more instability,” 纽约大学罗伯特F. 瓦格纳公共服务研究生院. 在女性中尤其如此⁶ 少数民族人口.⁷

住房金融 政策对不同收入水平的消费者也有不同的影响. Data analysis following the Federal Housing Administration’s decision to cut mortgage insurance premiums shows that a decrease in the effective monthly cost of a mortgage led to a material increase in home purchases, 尤其是低收入借款人.⁸ The Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) was introduced during the 2009 recession and helped borrowers with a high loan-to-value mortgage refinance their mortgage and reduce their monthly payments. 根据瑞士国家银行经济顾问Andreas柱身的研究， “Households that were able to refinance through HARP were less likely to default and used their savings to pay down debt or increase consumption.” ⁹ 进一步, the effects were larger for borrowers with lower credit quality and higher credit utilization rates, 这表明流动性限制是抵押贷款违约的重要驱动因素. 研究所的数据 还表明，抵押贷款违约和拖欠与收入损失相关, 无论收入水平如何, 债务收入比, 或者房屋净值.¹⁰

_{Dr. Andreas柱身
瑞士国家银行}

_{凯伦·米尔斯
哈佛大学}

研究所研究 on 小型企业 这表明金融波动并不局限于家庭. 现金流模式不规律的小企业生存的可能性较小.¹¹ Evidence from government contractors corroborates this finding: accelerating payments to contractors significantly increased their employment and survival rates.¹² 分别, research measuring the size of the supply chain shows that it plays a key role in the economy.¹³ “The supply chain is large, contains high-wage jobs, and has the majority of STEM jobs and patents,” 凯伦·G说. 米尔斯，哈佛商学院高级研究员. 特别是, Mills noted the greater significance companies in the services supply chain play in the economy than is often attributed. Other perspectives empowered by administrative data paint a more inclusive view of the small business sector, countering some common stereotypes about entrepreneurs: many more grow their firms organically rather than with external finance,¹¹ 大多数人都是四十多岁，比通常描绘的年龄要大.¹⁴

行政数据在考察劳动力市场时也被证明是至关重要的, 特别是随着经济的增长 演出经济. 重要的是，正如凯瑟琳·亚伯拉罕指出的， 尽管调查数据显示，自主创业的人数有所下降, 零工经济的参与将体现在哪些方面, administrative data sources show that there has been a considerable increase in self-employment.” 根据 研究所的数据 网络平台经济, 对于大多数参与者来说, 在线平台是第二收入来源, 通常有助于抵消传统收入来源的下降.^15,16 阿伦Sundararajan, Professor at 纽约大学’s Stern School of Business, explained that “进入灵活工作安排的低门槛增加了消费者的准入, 包括那些可能被赶出工作岗位的人.” Experiments have also shown that this greater flexibility is valued by 演出经济 participants, ^17,18 哪个会模糊休闲和工作之间的界限. 例如, 一些公司正在采取灵活的工作安排, 比如补偿那些在下班回家路上送包裹的员工. 这对未来的工作提出了有趣的思考. 

_{阿玛Hamoudi
该研究所}

医疗保健 研究还揭示了对现金流动态的敏感性. 阿玛Hamoudi介绍了这项研究, 消费者高级研究主管, 澳博官方网站app研究所证明了这一点 “U.S. 消费者会等到有大笔现金流入时再购买, 比如退税, 寻求并支付医疗保健服务. 这意味着流动性是影响医疗保健需求的重要因素.” ³ 在供给方面, evidence from Medicaid insurance providers showed that the tools of managed care can be effective at reducing healthcare spending and can significantly change the total care utilization of their customers.¹⁹ 然而, 这是以消费者的满意度为代价的, 尤其是那些消费更多医疗保健的人. 随着医疗成本的上升, improving value for money will require policy innovation on both the supply side and demand side.

最后，研究重点在于 U.S. 城市 reveals the significant potential – and limitations – of using data to inform local policy making. 并非所有城市都有处理和解释数据的资源. For those that do, the heterogeneity of 城市 limits the effectiveness of external benchmarking. It is important for local leaders to set clear goals before diving into data analysis and then employ data that appropriately align with these goals. Indicators that are relatively easier to measure can easily become misaligned with the goals policymakers are actually seeking. 在评估经济和种族包容性时尤其如此. 城市研究所的高级研究员克里斯蒂娜 Plerhoples史黛西警告说 “一个城市可以在提高包容性的同时加剧不平等, 反之亦然, 或者(表面上)通过转移低收入居民来减少不平等.” ²⁰

_{克里斯蒂娜
Plerhoples史黛西
城市学院}